Why we CAN achieve 80% by 2020

I would like to tell you why I think the ambitious goal of an 80% reduction in human-generated greenhouse gas emissions by the year 2020 is achievable, and why I am personally spending 17 hours a day working on this project with Jim Garrison and the State of the World Forum’s global 80/20 Climate Team.

First, essentially every climate indicator is now worse than expected. We're at the 'Catastrophic' end of predicted outcome scenarios - and worsening.

Second, all the pieces of the climate-solution-puzzle are present:

1.     We know it can be done: the Earth policy Institute, Lester Brown and Janet Larsen have run the numbers and clearly demonstrate that 80% reduction in greenhouse gases is not a joke; instead it is clear eyed reality.

2.     We know we have all the technologies we need: David Martin's incredible analysis of available technologies shows that everything we need is already here, often in the public domain.

3.     We know we have a large and rapidly-growing body of focused organizations: the urgency of the climate situation provides the impetus for the needed convergence of related, like-minded groups to meet locally to support a collective vision of the future. The enormous ‘Super Organizations’ of 350.org, Climate Action Network, 1Sky, the 10:10 Campaign, Pachamama Alliance (and more groups of ‘like mind’ than I can possibly name here) form an unprecedented base. Together, these loosely represent 5,000 groups, or more.  Collectively, these groups can form the seeds of the 30,000 to 50,000 groups we may need to get the job done, simply by recruiting like-minded organizations nearby.

4.     We know how to arrive at a Common Vision:  we can come to a meeting of the minds about the future we want, through the work of facilitated deep dialog, like Paul Ray’s Charette processes, MeshWorks,  Avastone, and Integral understandings. As like-minded groups meet, they must be asked to produce their own Common Visions of a desirable future – within the scientifically-based requirements for ecosystem sustainability.

5.     We know the money is there: from the new financing mechanisms such as property assessment (PACE) bonds, STCO financing, Climate Bonds, to the many innovative financing mechanisms touted by Hazel Henderson. Most importantly, Green innovation is now making money for private business.

6.     We know how to get 10% emissions reductions in only one year: the remarkable 10:10 campaign in United Kingdom is an overwhelming success for demonstrating the simplicity of that one achievable thing.

7.     We know how to get 25% emissions reductions in three years: 300 communities have done this through the Cool Communities process – David Gershon has shown us that we can build the widely-reproducible 25% reductions from structured community-based EcoTeams. Critically important, this proven methodology puts us on a slope to achieving 80% reduction in 10 years by buying us the time to make deeper infrastructure changes.

8.     We have the technological infrastructure: we can now communicate, organize, and propagate the best examples and ideas effectively.

9.    We have the engineering underway: forward-looking designers say it is possible to move rapidly. Lester Brow's analyses, Amory Lovins', Tom Weis, Jasper Sky, Jim Walker - these leaders and thousands more are getting the renewable energy future build now, ahead of schedule.

10.     We know how to get leaders to follow: the convening work of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, President Lula of Brazil and other national, sub-national and local leaders shows that serious political consensus about climate is already emerging. For the "tough case" of the United States, the ReAmp process in the conservative upper Midwest region of the US shows that state-level leaders can be walked through a private “360 Degree” design process to reach a leadership consensus on requirements for rapid GHG reductions. Eight states agreed to an 80% energy sector emissions reduction by the year 2030 - remarkably close to our intended objective. Such a consensus on such a difficult movement was previously considered impossible; a breakthrough came when R. Scott Spann’s facilitation process was able to provide space for leaders to speak freely in private interviews. Note the importance of this step, because it is often incredibly difficult to achieve leadership alignment for rapid changes, given the immense pressures of organizational responsibility. State of the World Forum has repeatedly shown its capacity for getting leaders to convene for similar ends.

11. We know how to expand the capacity of this program quickly: the rigorous capacity-building approach of the Cool Communities campaign has shown in 300 communities that we can organize, expand and build capacity quickly with good guidance, specific training and systematic follow-up.

12. We have a huge untapped reservoir of supporters: tens of thousands of activists worldwide are supercharged with pent- expectations for climate action. They have been waiting for an opportunity to move, but have been largely stalled pending government action; these people are ready to take good ideas and move them forward, given training, action templates, organizational support, capacity building and infrastructure. I believe that we can and should provide these needed elements.

13. We have an emerging global action framework: there is broad agreement that unsustainable practices must end, and that they can be replaced by locally-adaptive better approaches. Although each adaptation will be unique, a global framework of agreement is possible, practical and its outlines are emerging.

14. We have a collective intelligence that is growing: it is possible for us to look both inside and outside, to see an integrated view of who we are and where we wish to go. Our capacities for this collective intelligence are improving substantially, and this work is part of that process.

15. We have a philosophy of our shared Global Commons to guide us: it is now clear that we share the planet, and that we must work together for our collective good. Further, the collective good of all life, on which we depend, is now our responsibility as stewards of the planet itself.

None of these individual elements are unusually difficult or complex: we simply have to scale upward, and that too has been done before.

Third, specifically, as Paul Ray states, our Washington DC conference should and will get done:

1.     “…[Get people] leaning forward with one another, working on the concept of a viable future that we can then back-cast from.

2.     Tie [people] into both visionary and strategic thinking before the conference, during the conference, after the conference

3.     Tie [people] into systems thinking about what the system is, how to leverage it, and how to strategize for real, effective innovations and interventions

4.     Set up opportunities, and spaces, for deal-making, and make that obvious in the conference description

5.     Have a parallel climate leaders conference…”

Fourth, for me, our meeting in Washington DC can move strongly towards what (I think) we need now:  expanded group formation, a reproducible methodology for arriving at collective local visions for what a desirable future looks like, culturally-sensitive repeatable sustainable-design templates, better integration of supporting people/infrastructure and providing a trained expert support capacity in Rapid Response Teams. Building these is straightforward given a better alignment of civil society and NGO effort.  This is how I would define our core work in Washington DC from February 28 to March 3^rd 2010.

We have four years to turn the corner, and 10 years to get 80% of the work done. We need to replicate what works, fast, adapting the best ideas to where we are right now.

Our gathering in Washington DC is designed to generate a movement, to take the next milestone step from the great gift of our Brasil gathering (thank you Brasil), towards a 10-Year Campaign for the 80% change we need by 2020.

I request that you attend in Washington DC, and that you also invite people on your lists - those whom you will know need to be there. This is not an abstraction - we need to get this work done!

Ask them to come with their highest Hopes, and leave with their best Plans.

Come to Washington, DC.

Yours,

Kevin Hansen

2020 Climate Campaign